One of the more vocal arguments against value investing stems from a belief that we’re in a “new normal” environment where innovative or high-tech companies have a leg up on “old guard” industries, such as energy or financials. FAANG stocks have typically been the poster children for this position; these behemoth technology companies have contributed meaningfully to the market’s overall return and, by virtue of being growth stocks, the negative value premiums in recent years. Well, guess who showed up as value this summer! That’s right, Russell reclassified Meta (formerly Facebook, the “F” in FAANG) and Netflix (the “N”) from growth to value during the index provider’s annual reconstitution event. Although signs have been pointing to the waning dominance of FAANG stocks since the start of 2022, it is somewhat ironic that 40% of the pillars supporting an aversion to value investing have now become value stocks themselves.
This also serves to highlight a possible misconception about the spirit of value investing. A value premium is a discount-rate effect: If expected future cash flows are not identically discounted for all stocks, then the ones with low prices relative to their expected future cash flows have higher expected returns. Investors advocating for the superiority of growth firms, such as the FAANGs, are inadvertently making the case for their expected future cash flows to be discounted at a lower level—all else equal, greater certainty around future success should be associated with a lower expected return. In fact, as Exhibit 1 shows, this is generally what we see for stocks of companies once they grow to become among the largest in the market. In other words, investors should be careful about equating expected company success with expected stock returns. Please see the end of this document for important disclosures.
2 Dimensional Fund Advisors
Please see the end of this document for important disclosures.
Exhibit 1
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Average annualized outperformance of companies before and after the first year they became one of 10 largest in US
In USD. Data from CRSP and Compustat for the time period 1927-2021. Average annualized outperformance of companies before and after the first year they became one of 10 largest in US. Companies are sorted every January by beginning of month market capitalization to identify first time entrants into the top 10. Market defined as Fama/French Total US Market Research Index. The Fama/French Indices represent academic concepts that may be used in portfolio construction and are not available for direct investment or for use as a benchmark. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Index has been included for comparative purposes only. (Compared to Fama/French Total US Market Research Index, 1927–2021)
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This article was written by Wes Crill, PhD, Head of Investment Strategists and Vice President at Dimensional Fund Advisors on August 31, 2022.
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The information contained herein is intended to be used for educational purposes only and is not exhaustive. Diversification and/or any strategy that may be discussed does not guarantee against investment losses but are intended to help manage risk and return. If applicable, historical discussions and/or opinions are not predictive of future events. The content is presented in good faith and has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. The content is not intended to be legal, tax or financial advice. Please consult a legal, tax or financial professional for information specific to your individual situation.
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